Why did Putin think this to be an opportune moment to attack Ukraine?
1. Because the Allied Forces are likely to have looked very weak retreating from Afghanistan in a hurry. Putin, the Russian oligarchy, the military brass, and the spy network are likely to have thought, 'If they cannot defeat Afghanistan, what will they challenge us.' But Putin is likely to have overlooked two important things here: First, that the Taliban had routed the Russians before they resisted the Allied Forces, which doesn't make the Russians any better than the Allied Forces. Second, Biden very crucially announced that he was bringing back his troops to ready them for other challenges. Putin should have taken that as a warning.
2. Putin is likely to have observed no strong leader in the West right now and thought this to be the right time to do something to assert Russia's world dominance without retaliation. He may be right on this but his victory is only temporary. The West will come together in spite of weak national leaders and others will step in to take charge behind the scenes and lead an effective response. Putin's days are numbered.
3. Angela Merkel was the only western leader Putin had established a relationship of trust with. As soon as she was gone, frustration is likely to have set in and might have gradually increased, leading to the disaster.
4. After World War II, America wanted Germany's territory and its military capacity to be reduced. Western Europe also sought curbs on its own military development having experienced the grim realities of war. Russia may have expected America to have been weakened in Afghanistan and preoccupied with the South China Seas. Observing all this, Putin may have wanted to take his chance.
5. Corona virus has made the world weary and tired, and economically weak. Putin may have expected an unpreparedness and reluctance for war in the West. Once again he is likely to have sought to take his chance.
But Putin has clearly underestimated the resolve of the world, especially the western world, to take him on and weaken him.
That will not happen like it happened in Afghanistan. It most likely won't be a hand to hand battle. The West will not seek war given that Russia is an unpredictable nuclear power.
The battle will be economic, diplomatic, and an alienation of Russia from the rest of the world.
That will slowly ruin Russia and send it back to the days of the Soviet Union. An economic collapse will make Russia irrelevant to the world.
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